Economic forecast 2006–2007

Forecast risks

The ICPS forecast could prove overly optimistic under these five circumstances:

·    significant price hikes for Russian gas coupled with a full-scale trade war with Russia that will include removing goods from the free trade regime, a growing number of anti-dumping investigations against Ukrainian exports, and restrictive import quotas;

·    further price declines for Ukrainian export commodities on external markets;

·    low tax receipts as business performance falls off;

·    the inability of a pro-government party to ensure coalitional majority in the Verkhovna Rada, which would make it difficult to adopt key government decisions;

·    the NBU switching to a more flexible exchange rate, which could significantly influence hryvnia and foreign currency rates.

Updated

January 9, 2006

Contents

	Overview
	Current situation
	Forecast for 2006–2007
	Forecast risks
	Highlights of the latest Quarterly Predictions

Contact person

Yevhenia Akhtyrko
Chief Economist
e-mail:
phone: (380-44) 484-4403